# stat

“ The inhabitants of an island tell truth one third of the time. They lie with the probability of 2/3. On an occasion, after one of them made a statement, another fellow stepped forward and declared the statement true. What is the probability that it was indeed true?
Unreliable Witness from Interactive Mathematics Miscellany and Puzzles

“ The statisticians had one key piece of information, which was the serial numbers on captured mark V tanks. The statisticians believed that the Germans, being Germans, had logically numbered their tanks in the order in which they were produced. And this deduction turned out to be right. It was enough to enable them to make an estimate of the total number of tanks that had been produced up to any given moment.
Gavyn Davies does the maths | World news | The Guardian